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张化桥
张化桥
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张化桥简介

瑞士银行11年 (研究主管,投行副主管)。五年(2001-05)"机构投资者"杂志评选的中国分析师第一名。深圳控股(604.HK)首席运营官(06-08)。1986-89年任职行。

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杂谈

今天的英国金融时报有篇文章(by Henny Sender), 结论是,中国的金融监管突然变脸,堵住了几乎所有的非银金融的路子,但是银行既不愿意也无能力做中小企业的信贷。这真是害死人也!

这一年,中国爆出来的庞氏骗局的个数和金额都是世界第一的,而且是遥遥领先!请问,监管当局过去十年在睡大觉吗?很多庞氏骗局其实是十分公开的,明显的。为什么那么多监管部门不闻不问?中国的问责制在哪里?现在,政府一刀切,伤害的是大批良民,和合规的网贷公司,理财平台,真是令人惊叹??


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Is China experiencing a subprime crisis? You can be forgiven for thinking so. A dozen Chinese fintech companies listed in the US, Hong Kong and China have seen their share prices halve, or worse, in just six months. Worse still, 120-plus P2P lenders have shut shop in the past two months alone, having cost retail investors many billions of yuan. 

Last December I wrote a book, entitled “Chasing Subprime Crisis: How China’s Fintech Is Thriving”. Now a newspaper is asking if I should prepare a eulogy for the sector. 

“Absolutely not” is my rebuttal. The leaders in the sector are badly bruised but will survive the storm. After all, those that have recently collapsed are either weaker players, or Ponzi schemes. With these spoilers gone (or going to be gone), the sector’s outlook is only going to get better.


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现在,多數中小企业的实际借款利率在年化12-20%,通过信托渠道或者私募基金融资的成本一般在15%左右,而且还要企业主提供这样那样的担保。这比十年前或者二十年前还高。

你实在不能怪央行印钞票不勤快。过去二十年来,广义货币供应量增加了17.5倍,略低于委内瑞拉和津巴布韦,但是远远高于其它国家。

中国
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特朗普总统是时代的产物。他的很多政策带给世界的是痛苦和冲突。但他的出现有其历史必然性。

不管是特朗普,还是另外的人当选总统,结果都会一样:美国制度的优越性,它的世界霸权地位和右派社会潮流的兴起已经到了现在的地步,它的贸易政策显得非常自然,不管你是否喜欢。

历史会最终证明,特朗普才是中国人民最忠实的朋友,而不是波尔
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(2018-07-11 18:40)

In the 1980s and even the 1990s, China struggled with increasing amounts of chain debts. The liquidity in the market place was tight all the time, despite 30% and even 50% annual growth of credit. The banks had sustained more than 100% loan-deposit ratios for about a decade, and they had always relied on the central bank as the lender of the first resort (not the last).

In those years, triangular debt was a term that appeared in the media more often the Communist Party.

Alas. We are now back to that era. Yesterday, I visited a friend’s company in Shanghai and were greeted by three uniformed guards at the entrance to his office. I learned later that some disgruntled customers had protested outside his office to demand their money back. Are the guards going to be a permanent fixture to your office? “I hope not. But they have been here for a few months now”.

Large numbers of non-bank financial institutions have been crippled by unpaid deb

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(2018-07-11 11:19)
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杂谈

今天的英国金融时报 Financial Times)有篇趣文。作者是该报驻阿根廷记者。他说阿根廷的普罗大众(即使没有读书的人们)都是外汇市场专家,都特别喜欢讨论央行的政策和外汇储备等问题。个个都有一套一套的理论。不夸张地说,阿根廷的成年人个个都是经济学家。

为什么?2001年,一美元可以兑换一个阿根廷比索。今天呢?28个比索。

中国的股民人数,世界最多(没有之一)。所以,咱们的股市理论最丰富,专家最多。


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关于中美贸易战,美国朝野和人民的观点不一。当然,绝大多数人没有观点或者不关心。中国的绝大多数人也没有观点或者不关心。可是,那些有观点的人们只有一个观点。一个共同的观点。你知道的。

你有没有想过,汉奸会怎么看中美贸易战?我本人从来没有当过汉奸或者任何国家的特务,未来也不想当。不过,你且听我说说我的观点。

国际贸易从来就不自由。政府官员也是常人,他们的误解,偏见和愚蠢,以及利益集团的操纵都可能反映在关税,质检,清关程序和外汇管理等方面。美欧中都一样。美国是世界霸主,蛮横无理的地方太多了。这都需要贸易伙伴国长期不懈地斗争。

但是,中国是个自由贸易国吗?当然不是。咱们政府对企业的干预,退税,“政府扶持”,和外汇干预等都是严重违反自由贸易原则的。中国的很多消费者虽然崇洋媚外,但是咱们的关税和非关税壁垒也是十分可怕的。咱们2000年对世界贸易组织的承诺,迄今执行得如何?中国各行业对外开放程度如何?中国是个市场经济吗?最近二十年的国进民退有目共睹。

中国上上下下从来就把出口当好事,把进口当坏事,把顺差当好事,把逆差当坏事,把跟别国做生意当成恩赐对方。这些都是腐朽落后的大毒

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在发表了“中华地票”的建议之后,我收到了很多读者的回应。谢谢大家。
很显然,我的建议是无奈的。国人对房子的痴迷,实际上就是对纸币无信心。大家为什么不愿意持有纸币(或者存款)保值增值呢?

国人(特别是中国的企业)只要有办法,必定借钱,负债累累。你想想,这与那些对冲基金抛空人民币的道理有何区别?人民币能借多少借多少。用以后的人民币归还现在的人民币。付点利息算不了什么
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既然中国人买房子已经失去了理智,政府可否为可怜的房奴们做一件好事呢?六年前,我提出了如下建议。现在,它的时间太成熟了!


建议发行'中华地票' (2012-12-15)

        文:张化桥,

长期以来,中国政府把储蓄存款的利率压在通货膨胀以下,结果之一是老百姓对人民币的保值功能失去了信心。这是事实,不是观点。何以为证?很多人被迫买第二套,第三套,甚至第八套住房。很多人买了房子以后,既不住,也不出租,甚至根本不装修。由于中国建筑质量普遍不好,很多房子在十年以后,或者二十年以后就需要成为'旧城改造'的对象。

这个状况让人十分痛心。它起码有四大恶果。

首先,'投资者'并没有真正实现财富的增值保值。

其次,它导致了大量钢筋混凝土以及人力的浪费,对环境的破坏也十分严重。

第三,整个过程还有大量贪污腐败。

第四,政府的限购和限贷等措施不仅失败了,而且严重影响了政府的形象,因为它违反市场经济的起码原则。

我的建议如下:

(1)由全国二十大地产商协同四大银行发行一种股权凭证,暂定名为'中华地票'。任何希望获取房地产价格上升的好

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(2018-07-01 14:15)
A big number of good companies have been humbled lately due to their excessive borrowing (and/or particularly that of their controlling shareholders). To me, these are just statistics. There is nothing special. 

Until today. A friend who is the controlling shareholder of a listed company has just called to say that his stock price has fallen sharply due to his borrowing (with his corporate stakes as the pledge). He may have become bankrupt despite his many enterprises. His financiers (the investment banks) will be left with no option but to sell his shares even faster. And his personal debts will only grow on the back of his breach of this or that undertaking.

I was saddened though not surprised. Four or five years ago, he discussed his daring activities with me. I lobbied strongly against high leverages. I have warned him repe
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